In an era defined by deepening political divisions, cultural shifts, and geopolitical friction, the traditional playbook for venture capital is being rewritten. For investors seeking “unicorn” returns, the global landscape is no longer a seamless playground; it is a collection of increasingly isolated economic spheres.
Kompas VC, a venture firm with a presence in Amsterdam, Copenhagen, Berlin, and Barcelona, is positioning itself to thrive within this fragmentation. The firm has announced the launch of a new €160 million ($187.5 million) fund, signaling a commitment to a specialized, regionally sensitive investment strategy.
The Three-Sphere Paradigm
The global economy is currently splitting into three distinct trajectories: the United States, Europe, and China. According to Sebastian Peck, a partner at Kompas VC, these domains are moving in vastly different directions, making a “one-size-fits-all” global strategy increasingly risky.
While much of the current venture capital hype is concentrated in pure-play AI and hyper-growth software, Kompas is carving out a niche in the physical world. Their focus lies in the tangible sectors that underpin modern civilization:
– Manufacturing and Supply Chains
– Critical Infrastructure
– Decarbonization and Sustainability
– Industrial Productivity and Risk Management
The Challenge of “Cultural Conditioning”
One of the greatest hurdles in a fragmented world is that technological viability does not guarantee market scalability. A product might be revolutionary in one region but fail to gain traction in another due to local habits or regulatory environments.
Peck highlights prefab housing as a prime example. While highly efficient and scalable in Scandinavia, the concept faces cultural resistance in Germany and lacks a comparable market in the U.S. This creates a strategic dilemma for investors: if a startup’s solution is tied to a specific regional culture, can it ever reach the scale required for venture-level returns?
This regional divergence extends to broader themes as well:
– In Europe: Sustainability remains a dominant and attractive investment theme.
– In the U.S.: The same “green” themes have lost some of the political and economic momentum they once held.
Finding Opportunity in Specialization
Despite these hurdles, Kompas sees a distinct advantage for smaller, highly specialized funds. While they may not have the massive capital of global giants, their ability to act as the “first check” allows them to identify and support niche founders before they hit the mainstream.
The firm’s new fund is designed to lead early-stage rounds, with individual investments ranging from €3 million to €5 million. By focusing on “reshoring”—the trend of bringing manufacturing back to domestic soil—Kompas is betting that the demand for localized, resilient supply chains will provide ample scale across various regional markets.
“We are investing over 10-, 15-year horizons,” Peck noted, acknowledging that these long-term bets must navigate multiple legislative cycles and unpredictable political shifts.
Conclusion
As the world moves away from globalization toward regionalized economic blocs, Kompas VC is pivoting toward the physical industries that sustain those blocs. Their strategy suggests that in a fragmented world, success belongs to those who understand local nuances as deeply as they understand global technology.
